Definition

1. Noun:
   • A principle stating that over a large number of trials, the actual observed outcomes will tend to balance out and approach the expected probability. This concept suggests that deviations from the expected average in a random process will be corrected over time.

Usage

• The law of averages is often invoked in discussions about probability, statistics, gambling, and general expectations for future events based on past data.
• It is important to note that this "law" is a colloquial interpretation of probability theorems (like the Law of Large Numbers) and is not a strict mathematical law. It is frequently misunderstood as implying that a specific outcome is "due" to happen after a streak, which is a logical fallacy.

Examples

Advanced Usage

• "to trust/rely on the law of averages": to depend on the idea that things will eventually even out.
  • We've had bad luck on the last three trips, but I'm relying on the law of averages for good weather this time.
• The term is often used in a fallacious sense, known as the , where one believes that past independent events affect the probability of future ones.

Variants and Related Words

• Law of Large Numbers (n): The actual mathematical theorem which states that as the number of trials increases, the sample average converges to the expected value.
  • The Law of Large Numbers is the rigorous statistical principle behind the informal law of averages.
• Probability (n): The measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.
• Regression to the mean (n): The statistical phenomenon where if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement.

Synonyms

• Statistical expectation: The anticipated value based on probability.
• Probability principle: A fundamental rule governing chances.

Related Idioms/Phrases

• "What goes around comes around": This idiom about karma sometimes is conflated with the law of averages, though they are conceptually different.
• "Even out over time": A phrase describing the core idea behind the law of averages.
  • Don't worry about short-term fluctuations; these things even out over time.

Noun

1. a law affirming that in the long run probabilities will determine performance