conjecture

/kən'dʤektʃə/
Noun
  1. reasoning that involves the formation of conclusions from incomplete evidence
  2. a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence
  3. a hypothesis that has been formed by speculating or conjecturing (usually with little hard evidence)
    • speculations about the outcome of the election
    • he dismissed it as mere conjecture
Verb
  1. to believe especially on uncertain or tentative grounds
    • Scientists supposed that large dinosaurs lived in swamps

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conjecture
The detective's conjecture about the missing key was based on a single footprint.